Repeat Purchase Rate Calculator: Formula, Cohorts, and Retention
Use one cohort definition, count customers with two or more orders, and interpret retention only when start, new, and end counts share the same period.
Table of Contents
Repeat purchase rate is the percentage of customers in a defined cohort who placed at least two orders during the observation window. It is a historical customer behavior metric. It is not a promise that the same share will buy next month, and it is not the same as subscription churn.
Use the Repeat Purchase Rate & Customer Retention Calculator to calculate the percentage from customer counts. The tool runs in your browser and does not connect to Shopify, a CRM, or an analytics account.
Repeat purchase rate formula
Repeat purchase rate = customers with 2+ orders ÷ customers in cohort × 100
For example, if 62 of 250 customers in a cohort placed at least a second order, the repeat purchase rate is 62 ÷ 250 × 100 = 24.8%. The single-purchase count is 250 − 62 = 188 customers.
The denominator must be stated. A first-order month, country, product family, acquisition channel, or customer segment can each define a cohort. Do not compare a new-customer cohort with an all-time customer base and call the percentage a trend.
Retention rate and churn rate
When the same customer definition is available at the start and end of a period, a simple customer retention calculation is:
Retention rate = (period-end customers − new customers during the period) ÷ period-start customers × 100
Churn rate = 100% − retention rate
Suppose the period starts with 250 customers, adds 45 new customers, and ends with 260 customers. Retained starting customers are 260 − 45 = 215. Retention is 215 ÷ 250 = 86.0%, and churn is 14.0%.
This formula is useful only when the start, new, and end counts use the same customer identity rules and time boundary. If the end count includes a different region, a different order status, or duplicate customer records, the arithmetic can still look tidy while the metric is wrong.
How repeat rate and retention answer different questions
Repeat purchase rate asks whether a customer ordered at least twice. Retention asks how many starting customers remain after new customers are removed from the end count. A customer can remain active without placing a second order in the selected window, while another customer can place a second order and then leave later. Keep the measures side by side, but do not treat them as interchangeable.
The calculator includes a small sensitivity table that moves the repeat-customer count by five. This is a count sensitivity check, not a confidence interval or forecast. Small cohorts can produce large percentage changes from a few customers, so show the count next to the percentage in internal reviews.
A practical cohort workflow
- Write the cohort rule and observation dates before extracting numbers.
- Count unique customers, not order rows, for the cohort and repeat-customer fields.
- Count a customer as repeat only when at least two qualifying orders exist in the defined scope.
- If using retention, remove period new customers from the period-end count before dividing by the period-start count.
- Record refunds, cancellations, identity stitching, and timezone treatment in the analysis note.
- Compare like-for-like cohorts over time and pair the result with contribution, return, and acquisition data.
General DTC retention versus subscription churn
Subscription churn often uses an active subscription status and a billing period. General DTC repeat purchase rate uses order history and a customer cohort. A subscription customer may pause, renew, cancel, or win back under rules that do not exist in a one-time purchase store. Use the Subscription LTV Calculator for a constant-churn contribution planning model, and use the repeat-purchase tool for observed customer counts.
Neither metric supplies an industry health threshold. A high repeat rate can still produce weak contribution if the second order is heavily discounted or expensive to fulfill. A lower rate can be acceptable for products with long replacement cycles. Interpret the metric with product cycle, margin, return rate, and acquisition cost.
FAQs
What is a good repeat purchase rate?
There is no universal target. Compare the same product, cohort rule, time window, and customer definition over time, then check whether repeat orders leave positive contribution after discounts, fulfillment, fees, and returns.
Can repeat purchase rate predict future revenue?
No. It is a historical ratio. A revenue forecast also needs order timing, average order value, product cycle, reach, conversion, seasonality, and cost assumptions.
Why subtract new customers from period-end customers?
The period-end count includes original and new customers. Subtracting new customers creates a simple estimate of how many starting customers remain in the defined customer set.
Is repeat purchase rate the same as retention rate?
No. Repeat purchase rate counts customers with at least two orders. Retention rate counts starting customers remaining after new customers are removed. Their denominators and time definitions differ.