What this tool calculates
The tool calculates the share of a defined customer cohort with at least two orders. When retention mode is on, it also calculates customer retention and churn from start, new, and end counts. It uses historical counts you provide; it does not connect to Shopify or a CRM and does not forecast future orders.
“Repeat customer” is defined by order count. It is not a subscription member, an email clicker, a site visitor, or an ad-platform audience.
Formulas and denominators
Repeat purchase rate = customers with 2+ orders ÷ customers in cohort × 100. If 62 of 250 cohort customers placed at least a second order, the repeat purchase rate is 24.8%. Single-purchase customers equal the cohort count minus repeat customers.
Customer retention rate = (period-end customers − new customers during the period) ÷ customers at period start × 100. Churn = 100% − retention. The start, new, and end counts must use the same customer definition and observation period.
Worked example
Suppose a cohort has 250 customers and 62 completed a second order. For the same observation period, the start count is 250, new customers are 45, and the end count is 260. Repeat purchase rate is 62 ÷ 250 = 24.8%; retention is (260 − 45) ÷ 250 = 86.0%; churn is 14.0%.
These figures answer different questions. Repeat purchase rate uses order count; retention measures original customers remaining at the end; churn is the complement of retention. Shared customer units do not make the metrics interchangeable.
How to use and audit the result
Write down the cohort definition first: first-order month, geography, product line, or acquisition channel, plus the observation dates. Extract counts from the same report or query. If end customers are below new customers or retention falls outside 0%–100%, inspect duplicate customers, date boundaries, and refund treatment.
The sensitivity table moves the repeat-customer count by five. It shows how a small count change affects the percentage; it is not a benchmark or forecast interval.
How this differs from subscription LTV
Subscription churn is usually defined by an active subscription state or billing period. General DTC repeat purchase rate is based on customer orders and a cohort. They can raise related questions, but one denominator and time window cannot be silently substituted for the other.
Use the Subscription LTV tool for subscription contribution and CAC payback. Use this calculator for historical repeat and retention metrics for non-subscription or mixed DTC cohorts.